WASHINGTON (MNI) – The following is the text of the November
IBD/TIPP Consumer Optimism report released Tuesday:
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index declined 0.9 points, or 1.9%,
in December posting 45.8 vs. 46.7 in November. The index is 0.6 points
below its 12-month average of 46.4 and 1.4 points above its reading of
44.4 in December 2007 when the economy entered into the recession, and
4.9 points below its all-time average of 50.7.
Note: Index readings above 50 indicate optimism; below 50 indicate
pessimism.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has a good track record of
foreshadowing the confidence indicators put out later each month by the
University of Michigan and The Conference Board. IBD/TIPP conducted the
national poll of 894 adults from November 29 to December 4. The margin
of error is +/-3.3 percentage points.
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components, two
of which improved in November.
– The Six-Month Economic Outlook, a measure of how consumers feel
about the economy’s prospects in the next six months, fell 1.3 points,
or 2.6%, to 48.7. When compared to December 2007, the index shows a
gain of 16.6 points.
– The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel
about their own finances in the next six months, improved 0.1 points, or
0.2%, to reach 52.0.
– Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary IBD/TIPP
measure of views on how government economic policies are working, fell
1.5 points, or 3.9%, to reach 36.8.
“Consumer confidence is still wobbly. The soft job market and the
debate on the extension of unemployment benefits and Bush tax cuts are
contributing to the slide in confidence,” said Raghavan Mayur, president
of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, IBD’s polling
partner.
“There is a tremendous amount of uncertainty right now over
Washington’s tax and spending policies,” said Terry Jones, associate
editor of Investor’s Business Daily. “In particular, many Americans fear
they could be hit with a major tax hike in January, as the Bush tax cuts
expire and new, higher rates kick in. This has held back business
investment and job creation, and is dampening the optimism of American
consumers.”
The Breakdown
This month, only three of the 21 demographic groups that IBD/TIPP
tracks were above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. The highest index
scores were for Democrats (59.8) and Black/Hispanic Americans (54.4).
The reading for Republicans was 34.8 and Independents was 43.2.
Republicans showed a loss of 4.2 points and Independents gained 2.0
points.
Eight groups advanced on the index, thirteen groups declined.
On the Economic Outlook component, ten of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. The highest index scores were
for Democrats (63.1), and Black/Hispanic Americans (59.4).
On the Personal Financial component, sixteen of the groups IBD/TIPP
tracks scored in optimistic territory. Twelve groups advanced on the
index while nine groups declined.
On the Federal Policies component, only one of the 21 demographic
groups tracked was above 50. The only group was Democrats at 56.8. The
index shed 1.5 points in December. Seven groups advanced on the index,
while twelve groups declined and one did not change.
** Market News International Washington Bureau: 202-371-2121 **
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