Comments via BNZ with a reminder on the higher tariffs imposed on goods from China:

  • The 25% tariff rate won't apply to goods already in transit from China to the US, creating a two-to-four week window for negotiators to come to an agreement before the economic impact hits.

Given where we are at I don't see how 4 weeks is long enough to resolve the differences, but BNZ are more upbeat:

  • Trump tweeted on Friday that the talks had been "candid and constructive" and maintains that he has a good relationship with Chinese President Xi.
  • Over the weekend, White House economic advisor Larry Kudlow said that Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Trade Representative Lighthizer had been invited back to Beijing to continue talks.
  • Importantly, Kudlow mentioned that there was a "strong possibility" that Trump and Xi could meet at the G20 summit in Japan at the end of June (the two leaders agreed to a 'ceasefire' when they met at the G20 late last year).

Though, as I've said before, perhaps something can be cobbled together to give Trump and Xi a face-save.