The BoC decision for January 2019 will be announced at 1500 GMT on 9 January 2019
The consensus estimate is for no change to rates
Preview via RBC:
- We are in line with consensus in seeing no change in the overnight rate on January 9th.
- Financial market developments have been huge in the month since the December confab, with 2-, 5- and 10-year yields all ~30bp lower in the broad global risk-off move. Governor Poloz & Co. were noticeably more dovish at the December meeting and associated economic progress report, highlighting risks from lower oil prices and the possibility of an output gap re-emerging due in part to GDP revisions and softer Q3 GDP details. Near-term growth (2018Q4 & 2019Q1) looks to be soft at just over 1%, with oil production curtailments and a postal strike weighing. We do expect GDP growth beyond to be at or above potential and see 2019 at 1.7% overall. Combined with underlying inflation remaining around 2%, this should be enough to see two hikes later this year, despite market pricing that now has a small probability of a cut instead
