The long end sinks lower
Barring a big turnaround today, the close in the 30-year bond will mark the lowest yield since January.
It's a message to the Fed that the inflation it's worried about isn't coming. It's a sign that the Fed doesn't need to worry about raising rates quickly and that it might not need to raise rates at all.
Along with that, the spread between 2-year yields and 3-year yields is at the lowest since the crisis at just 39 basis points. That's the lowest since the crisis and something the Fed is watching (it was in the FOMC minutes).
With that, there is a growing and underappreciated risk of the Federal Reserve heading to the sidelines. If that were to happen, it would pull the rug out from under the US dollar.
