I would say there is a better than 75% chance that we have seen the monthly low in EUR/USD. To me, the trade below 1.30 yesterday was a final push to chase out any longs. It was a great place for the considerable short interest to start covering and I expect that to be the theme for the rest of the year.
Here is what I wrote on Tuesday.
I don’t fight the trend but I think longs here are the better bet for the next 100 pips. At the moment, it seems as though some option expires are gluing EUR/USD to 1.30 but after the London close it should loosen up.
If we can close above 1.30 today or touch above 1.3064, the rebound trade is confirmed.
