The GBPUSD still to be bid medium term on Tory poll lead

Author: Giles Coghlan | Category: News

Poll of polls

The GBP has two opposing forces acting on it at present. The bearish twist out of the BoE and the bids underpinning the GBP on expectations for a Tory led majority in Parliament. 

However, counting any chickens too early is a problem with this UK election due on December 12. The last 2017 election went against the polls and forced Theresa May to form a pact with the DUP to only just keep a majority. So, polls can be unreliable. However the latest Poll of Polls data from politico give the Tories the same lead at 38%. You can visit the site here and slide the line backwards to see historical changes in the polls. 

Poll of polls
Note how this Poll of polls varies from the latest YouGov (UK Gov't poll). The latest YouGov poll gave a 2% fall to the Conservative party and to Labour. Lib Dems and the Green Party gained an extra 1%. You can check that poll out here. The reason we are interested in the polls of course, but I have to really spell it out today, is that they impact the GBP. A Tory lead  is pound positive and as that/if that leads dissipates that is GBP negative as the UK head towards a hung parliament and more uncertainty for the UK. 
UK Meanwhile the GBPUSD is just holding above the option level at 1.2800 mentioned earlier. 
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