No taper tantrum today

No taper tantrum today
  1. The dots moved up
  2. Powell said it would only take a decent employment report for him to taper and that many are already ready to taper
  3. Powell roughly outlined a taper timeline
  4. Powell said long-term inflation expectations are still anchored. With the word 'still' indicating some new uncertainty

Some of that was priced in but this is clearly more hawkish then expected. Yet after a kick higher in the dollar on the taper talk, it's right back down.

Now I'd argue that's all about Evergrande and the four key revelations overnight. (To add to that as well, Powell's comments suggest he's clearly spoken with people at the PBOC). However, the market has steamrolled all the taper talk and rates moving to price in hikes late next year. Stocks don't care and the dollar can't hold gains.

If something can't move on hawkish news, it's not going in that direction.

That said, it's still early and there have been some epic post-Fed whipsaws in the past year.