The negative Brexit effect on EU GDP

Author: Mike Paterson | Category: News

It's not only the UK that  looks set to suffer from Brexit 30 July 2016

Just browsing through some articles to find some week-end reading for you all and I came across this one from Bloomberg which highlights the Brexit fallout on its EU trading partners.

Says the article:

"Growth will be hit for virtually all of Britain's most important trading partners over the next few years, according to Bloomberg's economic surveys. The worst affected will be across-the-pond in Ireland, which has seen a combined 0.9% shaved off its 2016 and 2017 Bloomberg consensus GDP forecasts in the five weeks since the Brexit vote.

The euro area, which shares $472 billion in trade with the U.K., has seen its growth forecast for the next two years fall by 0.5% since June 23

The U.K.'s largest single-country trading partner, Germany, is expected to grow 1.5% this year and 1.3% next year, down a combined 0.5% since the Brexit vote. Other EU country forecasts have been similarly revised down as concern mounts that more referendums about EU membership could spur another euro area crisis.

More from Bloomberg here

We highlighted on ForexLive pre-Brexit that there would be negative impact on the EU but the Teflon-coated euro has been noticeably battle-hardened since June 23.

Maybe any move lower will be a case of being drip-fed against the underlying demand that the euro enjoys, and is certainly enjoying at the moment apart from vs the rampant yen.

Either way it will be a long process, the outcome of which will become a bit clearer once the trigger on Article 50 is pulled and the revised UK/EU trading terms are revealed.

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