January 19, 2017. The

As North American traders enter for the day and the market awaits the press conference from ECB Mario Draghi, the NZD (and AUD) is the strongest of the major currencies, while the JPY is the weakest. The USD is lower - mostly against the AUD and NZD and less so against the EUR and the GBP. The greenback is currently little changed against the CHF, JPY and CAD.

The picture can change on the back of Draghi but most expect little change from December meeting. So it might be a low liquidity run up and down (or down and up) on the headlines. In December the ECB extended QE to the end of the year but lowered the QE amount from 80B to 60B. They also made changes to the instruments they could purchase.

Overnight, the Australian employment rate moved up to 5.8% from 5.7% estimate. The number of employment change increased by 13.5K vs 10K. The AUDUSD initially moved lower on the news but then started to rebound higher and move away from a trifecta of MAs (100, and 200 day MAs and the 100 hour MA). Did that drag the NZD up as well in the UK session? Perhaps.

The ranges and changes are mixed. The EURUSD trading range is a low 49 pips. A Draghi comment or two should lead to an extension at some point. We trade near the highs. The GBPUSD has a higher trading range. Yesterday, the pair closed near the low. Today, the low was near that low and the pair trades closer to the highs.

The USDJPY is little changed but AUDJPY, NZDJPY and GBPJPY have been trading lower. The FTSE is down the weakest of the major European markets (FTSE is down -0.54%). US bond yields are little changed in trading today. The USDJPY has been following (or visa versa) the bond yields around of late. There is little change to follow around so far today.

At 8:30 AM ET:

  • Canada manufacturing sales are expected to rise by 1.0% in November versus -0.8% last
  • US housing starts for December annualized expected to come in at 1188K versus 1090K. Building permits are expected to rise to 1225K versus 1212K last month
  • US initial jobless claims for the week of January 14 expected to come in at 252K versus 247K last week
  • Philadelphia Fed business outlook for January is expected to fall to 15.3 from 19.7
  • Of course the ECB press conference gets underway at 8:30 AM ET.
  • At 10:30 AM ET, the weekly natural gas storage data will be released, and at 11:00 AM the weekly crude oil inventory data will come out.

A snapshot of other markets show:

  • WTI crude oil is trading at $51.64, up $.56 or 1.10%
  • Spot gold is trading at 1204.75, up $0.81 or +0.07%
  • In the US stock market. Is the futures are -2.25 points. The Nasdaq futures are down -4 points. The Dow futures are down -20 points. Netflix beat yesterday and is trading up about 10%.