NFP awaited.

The EUR is the strongest, rising against all the major currencies. The JPY is the weakest. This is before the US NFP report. The expectations are for the US to add 200K jobs. That is up since the stronger than expected ADP report on Wednesday which showed a 297 private payroll estimate. Anything over 120K and the Fed is still likely to tighten next week. Employment is near full employment. Inflation expectations are rising. Ryan has a good post on the report. Read it here.

Here the snapshot of the % changes. The USD is a little lower (really mixed). It is down vs the EUR, CAD, AUD and NZD and up against the GBP and JPY. The picture will likely change at 8:30 AM ET

The ranges and changes are pretty weak. The ranges for the major currency pairs are way below the 22 day average trading ranges. That picture is also likely to change. The USDJPY and the EURUSD are making the most of the narrow ranges by trading near the high levels for the day (up 35 pips and 43 pips respectively). That combination has the EURJPY up near high levels

In addition to the US employment, Canada will release. It is always a tough day for the CAD when they release on the same day. They tend to get little respect. The net change in employment is expected to fall -5K vs +48.3 increase last month. The Unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 6.8%.

US employment details:

  • NFP 200K est. vas 227K last
  • Unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.8% last
  • Avg hourly earnings +0.3% vs +0.1%
  • Avg hourly earnings YoY 2.8% vs 2.5% last
  • Weekly hours 34.4 vs 34.4 last

Like the ECB meeting yesterday, Market, Liquidity and Event risk will be high at 8:30 AM ET. Trade accordingly. More risk. More chance for large losses. Avoid large losses.