Forex main events.

What might drive currencies in trading in week starting August 22? Below is my list.

  1. Fed Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole Symposium. Friday August 26th. The Fed Chair is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday August 26th. It will be the Fed Chairs first talk since the better than expected employment report and worse than expected retail sales. The market will be looking for clues as to Fed monetary policy going forward. This week there have been calls for potentially higher rates. Did those officials really mean it, or are they just massaging the markets? Now the theme for the conference is "Designing Resilient Monetary Policy Frameworks for the Future", which sounds a little like what SF Fed Williams ("The Fed drop the inflation target and instead focus on nominal GDP which is the sum of inflation and real GDP growth"), and St. Louis Fed's Bullard (Repeats call for a set of possible 'regimes' that the economy may visit, abandoning concept of single, long-run steady state. Implication is policy rate to remain essentially flat over next 2.5 years) were referring in comments and "notes" they made public this week. Is there a new thinking - a new framework - at the Fed that the Chair wants to present. We will see what the chair has to say. The symposium starts on Thursday.
  2. BOJ Haruhiko Kuroda speaks (Tuesday August 23rd 12:00 AM ET/0400 GMT). The BOJ Governor is scheduled to speak at the BOJ's Fintech Forum. With the USDJPY plus or minus around the 100.00 level, his comments will be eyed closely. It is unlikely the BOJ does any sort of formal intervention - competitive devaluation is not in favor at the G20 - but he can do his best to jawbone the JPY lower.
  3. US Durable Goods orders. Thursday at 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT. The July preliminary Durable Goods order will be released with expectations of a 3.5% gain vs -3.9% in June. Ex Transportation the expectations are for a +0.4% gain.
  4. GDP (second look) for 2Q. The first look surprised at 1.2%. The revision is not expected to be any better as it is forecast to show 2Q annualized growth at 1.1%
  5. Germany IFO business Climate. Thursday 4:00 AM ET/0800 GMT. The expectation is for a rise in August to 108.5 from 108.3. The current assessment is expected to rise to 114.9 from 114.7, while the expectations are expected to rise to 102.4 from 102.2.