FOMC/BOJ decisions

  1. FOMC interest rate decision (Wedsnesday, 2 PM ET/1800 GMT). The FOMC will have their July meeting with the market expecting no change in policy. The focus will be on any clues for the September meeting. There will be no press conference. The last statement can be found here. With the election in November, many are looking now for the next chance for a hike would be in December - one year from the last hike but 3 hikes short of the estimate from earlier in the year. Then the Fed can restart and say they expect 4 tightenings in 2017 ; )
  2. BOJ decision (Thursday night ET/Friday mornnig ET). The BOJ decision is a close call. Lower inflation may open a window for a cut but recent talk of fiscal stimulus from PM Abe may take the pressure off the BOJ to act.
  3. US Advanced GDP for 2Q (Friday, 8:30 AM ET/ 1230 GMT). The advanced GDP for the 2Q is expected to show a rebound from 1.1% in the 1Q to 2.6% in the 2nd quarter. The Advanced report is revised a number of times, but this is the first look. Personal consumption is expected to increase by 4.1% vs 1.5% in 1Q. The Core PCE is expected to show a decline to 1.7% from 2.0%.
  4. Australia CPI for 2Q.(Tues 9:30 PM ET/Weds. 0130 GMT). The Australia CPI of Q2 will be released with the QoQ estimate. at +0.4%. The YoY is expected to rise 1.1%.
  5. US Durable Goods Orders (Wednesday, 8:30 AM ET/ 1230 GMT). The US durable goods for June are expected to decline -1.1% vs -2.3% last month. Durable good ex transportation are expected to rise by +0.3% vs -0.3%. The Cap goods shipments nondefense ex air are expected to rise 0.4% vs -0.5% last.

Other events include:

  • UK GDP on Wednesday at 4:30 AM ET/0830 GMT est +0.5%.
  • US CB consumer confidence 95.6 estimate vs 98.0 last