Reuters is out with a poll showing most analysts expect a deposit rate cut to -0.10% from 0% and a cut in the main refi rate to 0.10% from 0.25%. The breakdown is more interesting, although every economist expects a cut in the refi rate, 13 of 56 of those surveyed don’t see a cut in the deposit rate.

In what I’ve been reading, this is the overwhelming consensus:

Analysts said further easing by the ECB would have only a marginal impact on the euro. The currency, which rose over 4 percent against the dollar last year, is down nearly 2 percent so far this month and was trading around $1.36 on Wednesday.
“The impact on the euro is largely priced in,” said Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank.
“The euro has already come down from $1.40 to $1.37 or $1.36 and there’s going to be an additional knee-jerk reaction on the day but that’s probably it.”

At some point that will be true but the best market moves are built on disbelief. In addition, don’t expect Draghi to come out and say “we’re done now”, he’s going to maintain a dovish bias to some extent.

In any case, the ECB decision is still 8 days away.