There is plenty coming up this week, here's my selection of the 'key releases' from Asia

Wednesday 26 October - Australia - 0030GMT - Q3 CPI data

Headline q/q CPI:

  • expected is +0.5%,
  • prior was +0.4%
  • For the y/y, expected is 1.1%, prior 1.0%

Trimmed mean (the measure the RBA pays most heed to, the 'core' figure where the RBA target band is 2 -%)

For the q/q:

  • expected 0.4%,
  • prior 0.5% q/q
  • For the y/y, expected is 1.7%, prior 1.7

And, finally the 'weighted median':

  • For q/q: expected is 0.4%, prior was 0.4%
  • For y/y: expected is 1.4%, prior was 1.3%

So, those expectations, regardless of which one you look at, are for low inflation. There has been a level of comfort expressed from the Reserve Bank of Australia that inflation will return to the target band in the quarters ahead. If we get a surprise higher inflation result this comfort will be confirmed, but the danger is a surprise low reading, which will put a cat amongst the pigeons. Especially after the less than impressive employment report last week. I'll have more on the CPI as we approach.

Wednesday and Thursday also bring Australian export and import price indices (27 October 0030GMT), and New Zealand trade balance for September (26 October 2145GMT). Mmmm, I'm gonna not say these are 'key releases' but i'll have more as we approach.

Friday 28 October from Japan (Thursday 27 October 2330GMT) - September/October CPI data (along with September data for Overall Household Spending, the Jobless Rate, and Job-To-Applicant Ratio ... but I'm just highlighting inflation data as the key)

  • September National CPI y/y, expected is -0.5%, prior was -0.5%
  • September National CPI y/y excluding Fresh Food, expected is -0.5%, prior was -0.5%
  • September National CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y, expected is 0.1%, prior was 0.2%
  • Tokyo CPI y/y (October), expected is -0.4%, prior was -0.5% (Tokyo CPI data is available a month earlier than the National CPI)
  • Tokyo CPI excluding Fresh Food y/y for October, expected is -0.5%, prior was -0.5%
  • Tokyo CPI excluding Food, Energy y/y for October, expected is -0.1%, prior was -0.1%
  • NOTE - later on Friday from Japan (0500GMT Friday 28 October) the Bank of Japan will release their own measure for inflation, September, it's a core measure excluding fresh food and energy. expected +0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • Note also ... no prizes if you're thinking that with the BOJ inflation target at 2% y/y they are not even close