The top NFP watchers have spun the wheel and here's their numbers
The current league table for Bloomberg's list of economist/analyst NFP picks sees Max Clarke take top spot into today's numbers. Here's the table and their choices for today;
- Max Clarke - IDEA Global - 200k
- Ted Wieseman - Morgan Stanley - 190k
- Wesbury/ Stein - First Trust Advisors - 187k
- P. de Bruin/M Cabezas - ABN Amro - 190k
- Rhys Herbert - Lloyds TSB Bank - 200k
(Apols for the line colours. They're fixed and can't be edited)
As always, Adam has his Payrolls by the numbers post which has all the employment numbers from the various data points
I usually look at the reaction in USDJPY for the first 30 minutes after the release so this month I'm changing it to EURUSD. Only twice have we broken outside the upper or lower reaction bounds
EURUSD reaction to NFP
As we've been saying for a while, the headline numbers don't really matter right now as the focus is on wages. Non-farm payrolls have been on their longest monthly positive run in the history of the report. That run stretches 5 years now
NFP history
That shows how strong this trend has been in the jobs market and asks the question, what more does the Fed want to see from it? As mentioned, wages rising is one and that's going to be key for price moves today
Hourly earnings are expected in at 0.2% vs 0.3% prior m/m and 2.4% vs 2.2% prior y/y. Anything less than that is likely to sink the dollar or at least cap or reverse any gains from a good headline payrolls number. Flat or worse on the month will bring the greater moves. Conversely a big jump in wages (0.5% or better) and the buck is likely to respond positively, even if the headline is bad
There's so many variables to trade we have to be quick. The initial reaction will be to the headline number and the secondary will be to the earnings number. Assess both before picking your direction
Don't forget to enter our NFP competition for a chance to win Greg's book. Guesses only in the comments of the linked post will count
