Three takes for the FX market from BofA

Author: Adam Button | Category: News

What will drive the market in the fourth quarter

What will drive the market in the fourth quarter

Bank of America Global Research discusses the USD drivers in 4Q.

"China has been an important driver of the US dollar in recent months but we expect a transition to more US-specific drivers in 4Q, reasserting its positive correlation with US yields. Much depends upon the impact of Fed tapering on US real rates - while the taper signal itself has had limited impact, both the level and volatility of real rates are likely to be affected when the Fed's footprint in the TIPS market diminishes," BofA notes. 

"We draw three conclusions for FX markets: 1) based on historical betas, our expected real rate repricing could contribute ~1-2% of further DXY upside - modest but statistically significant; 2) higher real rate volatility should be associated with higher USD pair volatility once taper begins - USDCHF vol looks attractive relative to its term structure; 3) a persistent negative real rate regime over the longer term would reduce the vulnerability of "risky" FX to higher real rates," BofA adds.

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