Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts
The Fed pretty much stuck to the script yesterday but that didn't stop the dollar from tumbling lower as Powell reaffirmed that now isn't the time to talk about tapering and that any transitory rise above 2% inflation this year would not cut it.
That saw EUR/USD break above its key trendline resistance above 1.2100 with buyers looking poised to try and extend that break towards 1.2200 next.
GBP/USD is also looking towards 1.4000 now while USD/CAD sunk to its lowest levels since February 2018 with little in the way of a push towards around 1.2247-56.
Meanwhile, AUD/USD stays in the hunt in trying to breach 0.7800 with further daily resistance seen @ 0.7837-49.
Elsewhere, CAD/JPY is closing in on the late-March to early-April highs near 88.31 and a break there would allow more room to roam near the October 2018 highs @ 89.00.
EUR/JPY is also sticking with the breakout from earlier in the week as buyers look towards the September 2018 highs closer to 133.00.
Going back to the dollar, the technicals aren't really siding with the greenback at the moment with EUR/USD in particular breaking higher. The Bloomberg dollar index also broke below its key trendline support and uptrend for the year, hinting at a further drop.
Month-end flows will be something to consider in the sessions ahead as well so keep that in mind when navigating through the closing stages of the week.
Citi's month-end model suggests that there will be dollar selling but these are never set in stone, so just something to keep in your pocket in case.
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