Daily thread to exchange ideas and to share your thoughts
The kiwi is leading the charge today as RBNZ rate hike expectations get a shot in the arm amid NZ bank calls for a potential rate hike as early as November this year (!).
The kiwi is getting a decent boost but NZD/USD gains are stalling near the 25 June high @ 0.7095 for the time being.
The aussie is also getting an inadvertent boost from that, with AUD/USD rising to 0.7570 and is contending with its 200-day moving average currently with the RBA offering no surprises in its policy decision earlier here.
The dollar continues to keep mildly weaker to start the new week as all eyes will be on the Fed minutes tomorrow for more clues. 10-year Treasury yields are keeping more tepid around 1.44% and that is anchoring USD/JPY just under 111.00 for now.
Elsewhere, oil is near the 2018 highs now and that warrants some light scaling out of longs after the good run since April. My argument here is solely from a technical perspective as I don't see an outright run towards $100 coming any time soon.
That said, the break of the 2018 highs could set off momentum towards $80 next and that might be where buyers pause for some breath after the run in the past few weeks.
As such, structural longs should remain and amid the more bullish backdrop, I still argue for a more solid loonie to follow in the bigger picture of things once the BOC starts to be more firm about their tightening stance as well.
What are your views on the market right now? Share your thoughts/ideas with the ForexLive community here.
