What will happen in the market?

What will happen in the market?

I think pollsters have been conservative and that no 'shy Trump' voters are there. That's going to mean a fairly quick win for Biden and a majority in the Senate. Still, it's a tragedy to get the news right and the trade wrong.

Poll florida

What do you think will benefit from a blue wave win? We will look at other scenarios later. Some brainstorming:

  1. Gold (stimulus spending)
  2. USD lower (better growth)
  3. MXN and CAD higher on more US spending
  4. US oil companies lower
  5. Firearms makers higher (people buy guns in Democratic admins because they think they will be taken away)
  6. Positive for equities on a quick decision and stimulus spending
  7. Positive for emerging markets (trade, stimulus)
  8. Positive for green industry

Of all the trades, I think gold is one of the most straight-forward and it's also a call option on disarray and some other tail risks. I'm much less confident about the US dollar and can see some money chasing US-assets no matter what the result.

What about you? What's the trade?