Trump on twitter
There are no signs of the shutdown ending or the wall being built. This all sounds like Trump is ramping up to declare an emergency and build it anyway.
If that's coupled with a deal to re-open the government, I think it would be net-positive for risk sentiment. If he makes the move but doesn't reopen the government, then I think you're got to price in some real turmoil in Washington (more that we've priced in already).