Recent history would suggest that we are in a very choppy market phase, bullish one day, bearish the next. My problem is that, probably like most traders, I have a fairly firm view and I’m getting sucked into trades that I think are about to take off, but don’t. I’m a non-believer in the China story and I think much of the positive sentiment being created is not based on factual evidence. The rise in the Shanghai stock market and in Chinese property prices has been mainly driven by margin lending. I believe many other markets around the world have taken a lead from China and this will prove to be a false lead.
I’m short NZD/USD and a break below .6720 will say to me that we are at the start of a move lower which should take prices back towards 62 cents. I’m going to try and concentrate on what the prices do, rather than what my opinion tells me.
