Consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan:

U Mich consumer sentiment

  • Prior was 98.4
  • Current conditions 107.4 vs 110.7 prior (lowest since 2016)
  • Expectations 82.3 vs 90.5 prior
  • 1-year inflation 2.7%
  • 5-10 year inflation 2.6% vs 2.5%

That's not a great sign. The consumer has been extremely strong this year but this is a forward-looking indicator and it shows that trade worries could be weighing.

"The main takeaway for consumers from the first cut in interest rates in a decade was to increase apprehensions about a possible recession. Consumers concluded, following the Fed's lead, that they may need to reduce spending in anticipation of a potential recession.," the report said. " It is likely that consumers will reduce their pace of spending while keeping the economy out of recession at least through mid 2020."