US consumer sentiment data for September 2019:

  • Prelim reading was 92.0
  • August final reading was 89.8
  • Current conditions 108.5 vs 106.9 prelim (105.3 prior)
  • Expectations 83.4 vs 82.4 prelim (79.9 prior)
  • 1-year inflation expectations 2.8 vs 2.8% prelim
  • 5-10 year inflation expectations 2.4% vs 2.3% prelim

One of the ideas that's getting a bit of traction lately is the divergence between 'current conditions' and 'expectations'. History shows that when consumers feel much better about now and not so great about the future, it's a predictor of a slowdown.

DB has a great chart on it, using the Conference Board survey but the U Mich data is similar.

late cycle consumer confidence