Earlier headline is here: UBS cuts growth forecast for China 2016 to 6.2%


  • Cut to 6.2% from 6.5%
  • UBS cite property destocking ... "has led to a sharper real estate investment slowdown than previously envisaged"
  • Dealing a bigger hit to the industrial and mining sectors, where closure of excess capacity remains slow
  • UBS see see overall fixed investment growth continuing to roll down in 2015
  • Say nominal FAI growth to dip furthe
  • See real fixed capital formation growth easing ... held back by the ongoing property downturn...
  • UBS see "intensified delivery of mini-stimulus measures, greater fiscal support, more explicit national property measures and additional public investment projects and social housing construction launches"
  • But these will only offer a partial, but unlikely full counterbalance to the negative impact of the property slowdown on China's heavy and manufacturing industries