WTI down nearly $2

WTI crude oil chart analysis

In the lead-up to the OPEC+ decision, oil shot higher and wiped out the decline from Wednesday. However the reprieve was short-lived with WTI giving it all back and more. It's fell nearly $5 from the intraday high before a small bounce to settle at $78.81, down $2.05 on the day.

I suspect there are some in the market who are worried about what step the US takes next. It warned OPEC that it could act if it doesn't pump more and the obvious lever to pull is the SPR. If there is a release of strategic reserves (which I don't think there will be) then I'd buy that dip.

In any case, oil has run too far, too fast here and a retest of $76-77 would be healthy. As I highlighted in my seasonals package at the end of October, there's a negative bias in crude this month.