UK: Also at 0930GMT, UK labour market data is due. Last month’s UK
claimant count data confounded expectations to post its largest rise
since July 2009, more than wiping out the declines seen in the previous
two months. Up until Jan, claimant count had generally been rising at a
slower pace over the prior nine months with the count actually improving
in Nov and Dec following twenty months of rises. This improvement may
have been partly due to the extra rise in temporary jobs ahead of
Christmas and the increase in people reluctantly taking part-time work.
The claimant count may yet then post some modest monthly increases in
the first half of 2010, particularly given that GDP growth continued to
contract in Q3 and remained weak in Q4. Indeed, Feb saw the announcement
of thousands more job losses and the median forecast is for a rise of
5,000. However, there is a wide range of forecasts, between -15k and
+30k and heavy snow may have distorted the picture in Jan with some
companies likely to have delayed their hiring process until Feb.