–Aug claimant count unemployment +2,300; rate 4.5%
–May-Jul ILO unemployment -8,000 q/q; rate 7.8%
–Jul total weekly earnings +1.5% 3m y/y vs +1.1% in Jun
–Jul regular weekly earnings +1.8% 3m y/y vs +1.6% in Jun

LONDON (MNI) – Employment rose at a record pace in the latest three
months, but a rise in claimant count unemployment suggests the outlook
for the labour market is fragile, according to figures released by
National Statistics Wednesday.

Claimant count unemployment rose 2,300 on the month in August
leaving the rate unchanged at 4.5% following a revised decline of 1,000
on the month in July. This was the first increase in the claimant count
since January.

Analysts had expected to see a small fall of 1,000 between July and
August.

Many economists believe that unemployment is likely to rise over
the coming year, as economic growth slows and public sector spending
cuts take hold, and these figures could mark a turning point following
six consecutive monthly declines.

Still the labour market indicators are not all pointing in the same
direction, making it difficult to make a definitive judgement about the
underlying strength.

The rate of decline in ILO unemployment slowed further in the
latest three month period from May-July with joblessness down just
8,000.

There was, however, a record rise in employment over the same
period by 286,000, something not seen in the history of the series which
began in 1971.

While the majority of these new jobs were part-time, there was a
121,000 increase in full-time employment, the highest rise since
April-June 2007.

Most of the employment gain came from the largest fall in
economically inactive people since 1983, mainly due to less students
declaring themselves inactive. This may be because they were no longer
in education or they had take some sort of employment.

Wage pressures remained subdued with average weekly earnings rising
to 1.5% in the three months to July compared with a year earlier, up
from 1.1% in the previous month. This was below the median forecast for
an increase to 1.7%.

Excluding bonuses, average weekly earnings for regular pay
rose to 1.8% from 1.6% in July, a little higher than the 1.7%
median forecast.

–London bureau: 00 44 207 862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]