–Nov Retail Sales -0.4% m/m; +0.7% y/y; median -0.2% m/m; +0.4% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales fell sharply in November following a
strong rise in the previous month, although barring a large fall in
December, figures for the final quarter of the year are likely to show
reasonably healthy growth.

Retail sales including auto fuel fell 0.4% on the month in November
and were up 0.7% on the year. The fall, however, followed an upwardly
revised rise of 1% in October and taking both months together suggests
the retail sector is not performing quite as badly as some of the more
gloomy reports.

The November outturn was a little below the median forecast for a
fall of 0.2% on the month but the revisions meant the year-on-year
growth outstripped the median of 0.4%.

Ex-auto fuel, which gives a better underlying picture of High
Street sales, sales fell by 0.7% on the month, sharper than the median
for a fall of 0.3%. Again, though the annual increase of 0.5% was above
the 0.4% median, mainly due to an upward revision to the October data to
show a rise of 0.9% on the month versus the initial estimate of 0.6%.

National Statistics did not give any concrete reasons for the
latest fall, but October saw strong growth with some anecdotal evidence
of stores bringing Christmas sales forward so it was not too surprising
to see some pullback in sales this month.

While retailers have complained of very difficult trading
conditions, and survey evidence of the sector has been bleak, volume
growth on the quarter in Q4 should be healthy barring a large fall in
December. A flat outturn in December would leave headline retail sales
volumes up 1% on the quarter and ex-auto sales up 0.8%. Even a 1% fall
on the month in December of total sales would leave volumes up 0.6% on
the quarter.

Sales at food stores fell 0.8% on the month while non-food sales
were down 1%.

Sales at other stores plunged 3.4% following a large rise in the
previous month. Household goods store sales were also down 1.2% and
non-specialised store sales fell 0.1%.

Clothing and footwear sales rose 1.1% while non-store retailing and
repair was up 2.8%.

The retail sales deflators showed easing prices pressures on the
high street with the ex-auto deflator falling to 2.6% on the year in
November from 3.2% in October

–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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