LONDON (MNI) — Construction growth in October fell sharply in
October on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, a bad start to the
quarter and may imply a negative impact on GDP figures released by
National Statistics showed Friday.
While there was a small upward revisions to Q3 construction output
to +0.3% on the quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis this will only
have a negligible up effect on Q3 GDP data.
The data for October, though, which show a 2.5% fall on the
month and 2.7% on the year, compare to a smaller fall of 0.2% on the
month in October 2011.
As the monthly data are non-seasonally adjusted it makes
interpreting the data difficult. But assuming that the annual rate of
growth remains similar over the next few months and taking into
consideration the usual seasonal adjustment in Q4, these figures suggest
a fall in construction output in Q4 of 4% on a seasonally adjusted
basis.
While there are still two months of the quarter to go initial signs
point to a quarterly fall which could knock 0.3 percentage point off
GDP.
Trade data today show a massive rise in exports and sharp narrowing
in the trade deficit which could help on the net exports front which
could take some if the sting out of the rather negative construction
data.
–London bureau: 0044 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]
