-Q2 GDP revised up to -0.4% q/q; -0.5% y/y from -0.5% q/q; -0.5% y/y
LONDON (MNI) – UK economic growth was revised slightly higher in
the second quarter, with household spending not falling by as much as
previously reported, figures from National Statistics showed Thursday.
The figures don’t really add much more to the policy debate but
does put growth more in line with the latest forecasts from the Bank of
England who had been forecasting stronger than initially estimated
growth in Q2. One chink of light came from a 1.9% rise in real household
disposable income, the largest since Q2 2009, although this came from a
strong rise in state benefits which looks odd against a backdrop of
spending cuts.
GDP was revised up to show a fall of 0.4% on the quarter, compared
with the previous estimate and median forecast of a 0.5% decline.
Compared with Q2 last year, growth remained unrevised at 0.5%.
The small upward revision came from an upward revision to
industrial production and construction.
On an expenditure basis there was also an upward revision to
household expenditure although it was still down 0.2% on the quarter,
compared with the initially estimated fall of 0.4%.
Net exports, which were previously estimated to have cut quarterly
growth by 1 percentage point are now estimated to have cut output by 0.8
percentage point.
In its August Inflation Report, the Bank of England forecast growth
in Q3 to bounceback by around 1% in Q3, but revised down overall GDP
growth for the year to around flat. It had previously said it expected
special factors to hit Q2 growth by around 0.5 percentage point.
–London newsroom: 44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com
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