–Sep manufacturing output +0.2% m/m; +2.0% y/y
–Sep industrial production unch. m/m; -0.7% y/y
LONDON (MNI) – Industrial production was flat on the month in
September, although the weaker-than-expected outturn will only have a
negligible downward impact on third quarter GDP.
Lower oil and gas production this year compared to last, due to
maintenance closures, contributed to production coming in below 0.7%
below levels a year earlier.
The data were weaker than the median forecast for a rise of 0.2% on
the month although the annual fall was in line with forecasts, as the
August data were revised up slightly to show a 0.3% rise on the month
from the originally published 0.2% increase.
Oil and gas extraction output fell 1.7% on the month, due to
maintenance work, following a 2.4% rise in August.
For Q3 as a whole, production was up just 0.4% on the quarter, only
marginally below the estimate of 0.5% used to compile the Q3
preliminary GDP data and suggesting a negligible downward impact on GDP.
Construction data released on Friday, which have proved erratic in
recent months, do have the potential to impact on the GDP data.
Within industrial production, manufacturing output rose 0.2% on the
month, a little above the median for a 0.1% increase.
Growth in manufacturing has been hit hard in recent months, with
output in the three months to September up just 0.2% compared with the
previous 3 months. This compares to growth rates of around 1% or more
throughout most of 2010.
The real concern, though, lies ahead with the latest PMI
manufacturing survey falling to 47.4 in October, the lowest reading
since June 2009. Given the turbulence in the euro zone, the possibility
of the manufacturing sector slipping into recession shortly can’t be
ruled out.
–London newsroom 4420 7862 7491 email: drobinson@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MT$$$$,M$B$$$,MABDS$]
