–Mar Retail Sales +1.8% m/m; +3.3% y/y; median +0.4% m/m; +1.4% y/y

LONDON (MNI) – Retail sales rose at their fastest monthly pace for
a year in March, as clothing and footwear sales were boosted by the warm
weather, according to figures released by National Statistics Friday.

The figures show the retail sector performing far better than had
been expected during the first quarter of the year, which could lead
analysts to up their forecasts slightly for GDP.

Retail sales volumes rose 1.8% on the month in March and were up
3.3% on the year, way above the median for a 0.4% monthly gain and 1.4%
on the year. The rise between February and March and in the year to
March was the strongest since January 2011. The January 2011 rise was
due to special factors so a better comparison would put the monthly rise
at the strongest since February 2010.

The large rise in March means that volumes grew by 0.8% on the
quarter, significantly above the 0.2%/0.3% rise most analysts were
penciling in.

Headline retail sales which include sales of auto fuel, were
boosted by the threat of a petrol strike at the end of the month. Auto
fuel volumes leapt 4.9% on the month, the highest since January 2011.

Excluding auto fuel, however, sales still grew a hefty 1.5% on the
month and were up 2.8% on a year earlier. National Statistics noted
there was some evidence that the petrol strike had actually hit sales at
smaller petrol stations. Many of these were forced to close as their
fuel supplies quickly sold out, meaning they lose out on sales of
non-fuel items.

Textile, clothing and footwear sales leapt 2.3% on the month in
March following a 0.7% fall in February. National Statistics said that
retailers had cited the unusually warm weather for the sales boost.

There was also a strong rise in other store sales of 6.1% on the
month, following a 3.6% decline in February, with strong sales at garden
centres.

Non-specialised (department) store sales were up 1.6% on the month
and household goods sales rose 0.9%.

Overall non-food sales increased by 3% on the month, their best
performance since February 2010.

Food store sales were down 0.3% on the month.

The retail sales deflator excluding auto fuel ticked up to 2.1% in
March from 2% in February. The headline deflator rose to 2.5% from 2.4%.

–London bureau: +44 20 7862 7491; email: puglow@marketnews.com

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