Latest data released by ONS - 19 September 2019
- Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4%
- Retail sales +2.7% vs +2.8% y/y expected
- Prior +3.3%; revised to +3.4%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) -0.3% vs -0.3% m/m expected
- Prior +0.2%; revised to +0.4%
- Retail sales (ex autos, fuel) +2.2% vs +2.3% y/y expected
- Prior +2.9%; revised to +3.1%
A softer touch on the headlines after the beat in July but the revisions to the prior month figures sort of take away the weaker readings in August.
That said, the annual headline reading (+2.7% y/y) is the weakest since May with ONS attributing the decline this month to the stronger jump in July, which saw big gains following promotions for non-store retailing.
Of note, non-store retailing fell 3.2% in August, the biggest monthly fall since August 2015.
Cable eased a little off highs from 1.2493 to 1.2483 but I don't think there is much in the data to suggest any material upside or downside for the pound. Consumption activity remains modest in Q3, led by online sales, and it should provide some comfort to economic conditions amid poor business investment due to Brexit uncertainty.
