–BRC: UK Nov Like-For-Like Sales 0.4% y/y; Total 1.8% y/y

LONDON, (MNI) – Retail sales saw subdued growth on the year in
November, with a real terms decline in food sales.

Like-for-like sales were up just 0.4% on the year in November,
despite favourable base effects, with sales down 1.6% in November 2011.
Total sales were up 1.8% on the year.

The BRC said sales in November started strongly but momentum faded
as the month went on.

In the three months through November, like-for-like sales were up
0.7% and total sales up 2.2%. Three monthly like-for-like food sales
rose just 0.6% while non-food sales were up 0.7%.

The BRC shop price index showed food price inflation running at
3.1% on the year in August and September, rising to 4.0% in October,
while non-food inflation was just negative in August and September and
flat on the year in October, showing non-food outperforming in real
terms.

“November was a cautious month of wait and see. The like-for-like
indicators in food and non-food are positive but only just, against a
weak set of comparatives last year,” David McCorquodale, Head of Retail,
KPMG, said.

BRC Director General Stephen Robertson said that, “November was off
to a flying start” boosted by “mid-season sales and the impact of half
term, which had been in the previous month last year.”

He noted, however, that “sales growth slowed as November unfolded
… although must-have toy and technology items did well as people
bought early so as not to be disappointed.”

One bright spot early in the month was double digit increases in
clothing and children’s footwear, with McCorquodale suggesting this
early month activity may reflect people buying immediately post
end-month payday.

The BRC data are value based and the latest official data, where
the focus is on the volume numbers, showed a 0.8% monthly decline in
October. That, however, appeared to partly reflect payback from a strong
September.

The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee, in the November
Inflation Report, was fairly upbeat about consumer spending, saying it
assumed “that a pickup in real incomes filters through into consumer
spending,” although it warned this recovery could be derailed if savings
ratios rose.

The BRC survey was conducted between Oct 28 and Nov 24.

–London newsroom: +44 20 7862 7491; email: drobinson@marketnews.com

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