UK June inflation report now released 19 July 2016

  • +0.2% prev
  • yy +0.5% vs +0.4% exp vs +0.3% prev
  • core CPI yy +1.4% vs +1.3% exp vs +1.2% prev
  • RPI mm +0.4% vs +0.2% exp vs +0.1% prev
  • yy +1.6% vs +1.5% exp vs +1.4% prev
  • RPI ex-mortgage yy +1.7% vs +1.5% exp/prev
  • retail price index 263.1 vs 262.7 exp vs 262.1 prev
  • house price index May +8.1% as prev revised down from +8.2%

Stronger yy and core sees GBP on the rise again. Better beat on RPI too.

Not a huge improvement but enough perhaps to give the BOE some food for thought in their August inflation report although the post-Brexit July reading will offer some better clues.

Say the ONS:

  • The June rate is a little above the position seen for most of 2016, though it is still relatively low historically.
  • Rises in air fares, prices for motor fuels and a variety of recreational and cultural goods and services were the main contributors to the increase in the rate.
  • These upward pressures were partially offset by falls in the price of furniture and furnishings and accommodation services.

GBPUSD back up to 1.3217 but running into sellers again. EURGBP still finding dip-demand

Let's see if we get a second wave of GBP demand. If not then we have a back-foot GBP again.

Full ONS report here