UK data coming up on Thursday – Retail Sales preview
My fearless predication is Brexit ping pong headlines will persist and move GBP more than the data
But, back to retail sales, this via Nomura:
- Anecdotal and survey evidence suggests retail sales growth has slowed in recent months. The CBI distributive trades survey softened in October, while the BRC measure of sales growth was also weaker than earlier in the year. Many high street stores seem to be struggling, although it is difficult to tell how much of this is cyclical versus structural (i.e., the rise of online shopping). However, September's fall in the official volume series may limit how weak the October print ends up being and, as such, we forecast a flat reading for the month.
- UK retail sales volumes fell back by 0.8% m-o-m in September after a bumper summer. Indeed, we had expected that momentum to prove unsustainable. Despite a pick-up in real wage growth, consumer confidence remains relatively low and the housing market is weak in some parts of the country.
- For October, we expect a muted 0.3% m-o-m rise for total volumes including fuel, which would mean that the 3m/3m rate had slowed from 2.3% in July to 0.5% in October
- Credit card spending slowed further in October suggesting another lacklustre month for retail sales. We expect a modest contraction in September of -0.6%m/m, 2.0% y/y.