Amidst the Brexit political ructions threatening the governemtnwe get some data today from the UK
The monthly GDP data, for May, this the first estimate
previews"
Citi
- The first monthly estimate of GDP will be released at 09:30. Citi Economics expect the three month headline figure to be weak, perhaps 0.1%-0.2%, well short of the BoE's Q2 GDP growth forecast of 0.4%. However, this reflects weak growth in March (and April), and should be mitigated by solid May and June prints, which would keep an August rate hike on track.
Nomura:
- This is a particularly important report as it contains the first set of rolling monthly GDP figures ever published for the UK - switching from the quarterly release schedule (with interim monthly revisions) that has operated until now.
- The data will be published alongside the monthly industrial and services output releases and are said to contain a back series. It means that the previous "first estimate" of each full quarter's GDP will be delayed by around two weeks, which has the benefit of increasing the amount of underlying data that makes up the estimate. NIESR has had a good record of estimating monthly GDP over recent years and it is currently suggesting a Mar-May quarterly growth rate of 0.2% q-o-q. With the BoE increasingly seeing the slowing in growth earlier this year as temporary we think the risks are to the upside to this official estimate of GDP growth (note the BoE expects GDP in the full Apr-Jun quarter to grow at 0.4% q-o-q).
