UK DATA: May manufacturing output +1.2% m/m; -1.7% y/y
-May industrial production +1.0% m/m; -1.6% y/y
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Manufacturing output rose sharply during May as production was
boosted by an extra working day. While moving the usual late May Bank
Holiday to June this year provided an extra filling to output, historical
precedence suggests we’ll see a very sharp fall in June as two working
days were lost that month due to the Jubilee celebrations. This make
gauging the underlying strength in the sector very difficult.
Manufacturing rose 1.2% m/m, way above the 0.1% median as most
economists seem to have not taken into account the workday effect. The
situation this year is comparable to Jubilee events ten years ago in
2002 when output in May that year was initially reported to have risen
0.7% on the month, before plunging 5.3% in June and then recovering with
a 4.9% monthly jump in July.