UK DATA: Nov Production Dn Sharply; Q4 Hit On GDP Likely
–Nov manufacturing output -0.2% m/m; -0.6% y/y
–Nov industrial production -0.6% m/m; -3.1% y/y
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Nov Industrial production fell by more than forecast in Nov
suggesting the sector will have a negative impact on Q4 GDP. Industrial
production fell 0.6% m/m and by 3.1% y/y, below the median for a monthly
decline of 0.2% and fall of 2.3% on the year. Data for October were also
revised lower with production now shown to have fallen 1% compared with
the originally estimated 0.7% drop. These two steep falls in output
pretty much assure production in Q4 will fall sharply. Even a 1% rise in
December, helped by a potential boost in utilities output, would leave
production down 1% on the quarter which would cut GDP growth by some
0.1-0.2 percentage point. Manufacturing output was down 0.2% on the
month and 0.5% on the year.