Latest data released by ONS - 26 January 2021

  • Prior 64.3k; revised to 38.1k
  • Claimant count rate 7.4%
  • Prior 7.4%; revised to 7.3%
  • November ILO unemployment rate 5.0% vs 5.1% expected
  • Prior 4.9%
  • November employment change -88k vs -104k expected
  • Prior -144k
  • November average weekly earnings +3.6% vs +2.9% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +2.7%; revised to +2.8%
  • November average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.6% vs +3.2% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +2.8%

Slight delay in the release by the source. UK jobless claims comes in much lower last month compared to November but the data is arguably still somewhat distorted by the furlough scheme for the most part.

That comes against the backdrop of another fall in employment for a seventh consecutive month in the three months to November.

ONS notes that UK redundancies hit a record high in the three months to November and says the number of people temporarily away from work has risen slightly in November itself.

As for the jump in pay growth/wages, ONS says that current rates are being impacted upwards due to the fall in the number and proportion of lower-paid jobs compared with before the coronavirus pandemic hit.