UK economy forecast to expand 0.4% in Q3 - survey

According to the latest Bloomberg survey of economists

• Q4 GDP forecast +0.4% q/q (prior +0.3%)
• Q3 CPI forecast +2.4% y/y (prior +2.5%)
• Q4 CPI forecast +2.2% y/y (prior +2.2%)

2018 GDP is forecast to come in at +1.3% y/y while 2019 GDP is expected to improve to +1.5% y/y. Both forecasts are unchanged from the previous survey. The only notable aspect of the report was the one highlighted by Eamonn earlier in the day and that is a change to BOE rate hike expectations. Economists now see the central bank hiking rates twice in 2019 instead of just the one in the previous survey last month.

The first hike is seen in Q2 2019 while the second is seen in Q4 2019.