LONDON (MNI), April 29 – The latest polls published Thursday, with
research conducted largely before Labour leader Gordon Brown’s high
profile gaffe on the campaign trail, show a widening in the range of
results for party support but a negligible change in the averages.

The most striking poll is one by ICM for the Guardian newspaper.
This looks at Liberal Democrat target seats and finds that of the 42
seats where it came second in the previous election in 2005, the LibDems
are ahead in the popular vote, but set to make parliamentary gains
primarily at the expense of Labour rather than the Conservatives.

The ICM poll puts LibDem support in its target seats at 39%
compared to 35% for the Conservatives and 18% for Labour. The key
finding is the Conservative support is only one percentage point down in
these constituencies from 2005. The suggestion is the Conservatives
are likely to hold on to the bulk of its seats where it is faced by the
resurgent LibDems while Labour will lose out.

The surge in the LibDem vote, from a low of 18% on April 14, to the
high 20s to low 30s now, has been the dominant theme of this campaign.
The Guardian poll, however, suggests that the upshot could simply be a
transfer of seats from Labour to the LibDems, leaving the door open to a
Conservative victory if the Tories can make gains elsewhere from Labour.

The ICM poll implies a swing in the marginals of 8% from Labour to
the Liberal Democrats, with a negligible swing from the Conservatives to
the Liberal Democrats.

The Guardian suggests the Liberal Democrats could increase their
total number of Members of Parliament to “at least 80″ compared with 63
in 2005, but with 650 seats up for grabs that still leaves the door open
to an overall Conservative majority.

The three National polls out Thursday put Conservative support in a
32% to 36% range, Labour in a 25% to 29% range and the Liberal Democrats
in a 26% to 31% range.

The 10 poll average shows no change for the Conservatives, at
33.6%, up a percentage point from the 2005 election and a slight dip in
Liberal Democrat support to 29%, up 6.8 points from 2005 with Labour at
27.5%, down 8 points from 2005.

The full impact, if any, of Brown’s recorded description Wednesday
of a supporter who asked him about immigration as a “bigot”, which has
been endlessly replayed in the national media, will only show up in full
in polls taken Thursday onwards.

A slew of polls are likely late Thursday, mainly focusing on the
outcome of the third and final Leaders Debate.

The following table shows the most recent national polls with a 10
poll average.

End !Pollster!Media !Labour! Conservative!Liberal !Conservative!
Date of! !Outlet ! ! !Democrat!Lead Over !
Survey ! ! ! ! ! !Labour !
————————————————————————
28-Apr Harris Metro 25 32 30 7
28-Apr YouGov Sun 27 34 31 7
28-Apr ComRes ITV 29 36 26 7
27-Apr Populus Times 27 36 28 9
27-Apr YouGov Sun 29 33 28 4
27-Apr ComRes ITV 29 33 29 4
26-Apr YouGov Sun 28 33 29 5
26-Apr Opinium Express 25 34 28 9
26-Apr ICM Guardian 28 33 30 5
26-Apr ComRes ITV 28 32 31 4

————————————————————————
10 poll average 27.5 33.6 29 6.1
————————————————————————

–London newsroom: 4420 7862 7491 email:ukeditorial@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MABDS$,M$B$$$,MT$$$$]