UK election poll aggregator has some better news for the Tories

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

'Britain Elects' aggregates UK election polls into its model

In the run-up to next week's general election it has launched its first forecast (they call it their 'nowcast').

The firm caution:
  • Our nowcast is not a picture of what will happen on polling day
  • But rather a snapshot as to how the nation would vote if the election were held today
  • Model combines historical data as well as national and regional polling
  • Then estimates the probability a party has at holding onto each seat
Its good news for the current government, the nowcast has the Tories increasing their seats in the House of Commons. In summary:
  • Conservative 362 (+32 seats)
  • Labour 206 (-26 )
  • Scottish National 47 (-9 )
  • Liberal Democrat 11 (+3 )
  • UKIP 0 (-1 )
(I haven't included Plaid Cymru, Green nor Independents / Other in the table above)
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