Another UK election poll published over the weekend

This one from YouGov/The Times

  • Conservatives 43
  • Labour 36

2000+ people polled, conducted May 25 and 26,


On Friday I posted the previous You Gov poll: Cons 43, Labs 38, poll taken may 24-25. It seemed to (very slowly) kick off the GBP tumble.


ps. Other polls out this weekend:

  • Opinium polling has May 10 points ahead of Corbyn (was +13 a week prior)
  • Com Res poll has May 12 points ahead (prior poll from the group had May up 18)
  • And, I posted a little while ago on ORB polling, May up 6 in that one


The election is on June 8. That is said to be "the only poll that matters". That is true for the pollies, but for GBP traders the swings in these opinion polls matters. In a nutshell the market concern is of a hard(er) Brexit if May's victory is not convincing (its said it would weaken her negotiation position) and thus weigh on GBP.

(There is a possibility Corbyn wins, the probability of which I am putting close to zero, but if we've learnt anything from elections in the past few years its not to completely dismiss either nag in a two horse race as having no chance).