UK employment market reports for July/August due today - preview
Claimant count rate, jobless claims for August; along with unemployment and average earnings for July due from the UK today at 0830GMT
- We expect unemployment to come in unchanged but as recent months have shown, risks are tilted to the downside as companies seems to hire rather than invest.
- We expect AWE to accelerate somewhat to 2.4% 3m/y on bonus pay while core moves sideways (+2.1%3m/y).
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.4% last month and this time it will either stay there or tick down to 4.3%, in our view.
- On balance another month at 4.4% is our central case, but it wouldn't really be too surprising to see 4.3%.
- The survey indicators continue to be optimistic on employment so, even if the gain isn't quite as strong as the 125k 3m/3m outturns last time, another record high total level of employment, at over 32mn is likely.
- For average earnings the story continues to be disappointing though. We see the ex-bonus measure growing at 2.1% 3m/y, as was the case last month. Even though the including bonus measure should rise to 2.3% 3m/y, it will still be lower than the inflation rate extending a period of negative real wage growth.