Latest data released by ONS - 10 April 2019

  • Prior +0.5%
  • GDP +0.3% vs +0.2% 3m/3m expected
  • Index of services +0.1% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.3%

Basically, beats across the board but I won't expect this to change anything for the pound. If anything, it just means that the UK economy isn't doing as badly as feared in light of Brexit uncertainty to start the year but economic conditions remain sluggish.

Once again, stockpiling in light of Brexit uncertainty has boosted demand which leads to the jump in manufacturing activity and also in turn, helps to boost the economy a little. The other details also aren't that pretty from the trade side as exports volume are seen growing by just 0.5% m/m after the 3.9% m/m jump in January.

But the key takeaway for me is that all this pre-Brexit stockpiling is the main reason that is giving a temporary boost to the UK economy in Q1 2019. All this will eventually come back to bite the economy in the backside down the road, so just be wary that this isn't as great as the numbers suggest.

There's also factory activity data released at the same time are as per below:

  • Manufacturing production +0.9% vs +0.2% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.8%
  • Manufacturing production +0.6% vs -0.6% y/y expected
  • Prior -1.1%
  • Industrial production +0.6% vs +0.1% m/m expected
  • Prior +0.6%
  • Industrial production +0.1% vs -0.9% y/y expected
  • Prior -0.9%
  • Construction output +0.4% vs -0.4% m/m expected
  • Prior +2.8%
  • Construction output +3.3% vs +2.3% y/y expected
  • Prior +1.8%