Comments from Hammond in Spring Statement

  • OBR 2020 forecast at 1.4% (unchanged)
  • OBR 2021 forecast at 1.6% vs 1.4% prior
  • OBR 2022 forecast at 1.6% vs 1.5% prior
  • OBR 2023 forecast at 1.6% (unchanged)
  • 2018/19 deficit to GDP at 1.1% vs 1.2% prior
  • Sees real wage growth in every year of forecast
  • Has revised up wage growth to 3% or higher in every year
  • Economy forecast to grow in each of next 5 years
  • Economy itself is remarkably robust
  • Last night's vote leaves cloud of uncertainty over economy

No one can forecast out 5 months let alone 5 years. The forecasts aren't overly optimistic with the consensus of economists at 1.4% this year, 1.5% in 2020 and 1.7% in 2021.

Hammond said a Brexit deal would contribute a fiscal boost. He said that once a deal is concluded they will carry out a three years pending review.