London, Jan 23 (MNI) – The following are highlights of forecasts
for upcoming U.K. economic indicators and events.
All times in GMT/ET format.
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Monday, Jan 23
GMT/ET Data/Event
1800/1300 UK BOE Deputy Governor Paul Tucker
Panelist at New Europe/Goldmans
ESMA, Financial Markets Event
1800/1300 UK BOE MPC Adam Posen Speech
at Nottingham Business School
It’s a busy week for BOE watchers, with Posen, Tucker and BOE
Governor Mervyn King all set to speak and a set of papers on the
workings of Quantitative Easing out Friday.
Of these two BOE speakers, only Adam Posen will focus of monetary
policy. He is the arch dove on the MPC, but he has voted in line with
his colleagues for no extension in quantitative easing since backing the
Stg75 billion extension back in October.
Some analysts have speculated he could have broken ranks and voted
for more QE at the January meeting, and he is seen as inevitably backing
a substantial increase in QE in February. This speech and q and a
session should shed some light on his thinking.
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Tuesday, Jan 24
GMT/ET Data/Event
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Dec Public Sector Finances
0930/0430 UK Dec CGNCR (Stg bln) 10.5
0930/0430 UK Dec PSNB (Stg bln) 15.2 12.2
0930/0430 UK Dec PSNB-X (Stg bln) 18.1 15.0
PSNB-X, the Treasury’s favoured measure, came in at Stg15.9 bln in
Dec 2010. Analysts’ median forecast is for an improvement this time,
with PSNB-X falling to Stg15 bln. If this forecast is realize, it would
leave PSNB-X for the financial year to date at Stg103.3 bln, Stg11.3
below the cumulative total through Dec 2010.
On this basis, the improvement in the public finances looks set to
better the most recent PSNB-X forecast from the Office for Budget
Responsibility, for Stg127 bln for this fiscal year, with just three
more months’ data to come.
2000/1500 UK BOE Governor Mervyn King speech
in Brighton
King only delivers a handful of policy speeches each year. With the
Eurozone crisis having cooled a little and with Wednesday’s GDP data
likely to show UK output contracting a little, or at best flatlining,
this speech is timely.
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Wednesday, Jan 25
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Q4 GDP (1st Estimate)
0930/0430 UK Q4 GDP (%q/q) 0.6 -0.1
0930/0430 UK Q4 GDP (%y/y) 0.5 0.8
Analysts’ median forecast is for a small fall in GDP on the
quarter, but it’s a close call with a minority predicting flat growth or
a small quarterly rise.
From the Bank of England, and a pure economics perspective, the
difference between, say, a -0.1% quarterly outturn of zero is a
non-issue. This is only a first estimate and the data are likely to be
subsequently revised.
If, however, the data show the economy did contract a fraction in
Q4, this will generate a lot of commentary about a double-dip recession
and fuel policymakers concerns about the impact on business and consumer
confidence.
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE MPC Minutes
Prior Median
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE MPC Vote Unchanged QE 9 9
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE MPC Vote Extend QE 0 0
Most analysts expect the pattern of unanimous voting, that has been
in place since October, to continue, with some accusing the MPC of
“group think.”
That assumption is questionable. Even if the vote is unanimous, the
minutes should be closely watched for any evidence of a cracks in the
MPC’s unity ahead of the key policy decision in February, when the
committee will have its next round of quarterly forecasts.
Are all MPC members really going to unite behind one amount for
further QE in February, Stg50 billion or Stg75 billion, or are
differences of opinion going to emerge ? The likes of arch dove Adam
Posen and the more cautious Chief Economist Spencer Dale were far apart
before the latest round of QE – for how long will they continue to vote
together ?
0930/0430 UK Jan BOE Agents Report
1100/0600 UK CBI Jan Quarterly Industrial Trends Survey
Prior Median
1100/0600 UK Jan CBI Avg Price Balance 7 n/a
1100/0600 UK Jan CBI Total Order Book Balance -23 n/a
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Thursday, Jan 26
1100/0600 UK Jan CBI Distributive Trades Survey
Prior Median
1100/0600 UK Jan CBI Expected Sales Balance -18 n/a
1100/0600 UK Jan CBI Reported Sales Balance 9 n/a
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Friday, Jan 27
Prior Median
0001/1901* UK Jan GfK Consumer Confidence Index -33 n/a
c1000/0500 UK Four BoE working papers published on
unconventional monetary policy
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For further information contact David Robinson on 4420 7862 7491;
e-mail: ukeditorial@marketnews.com.
[TOPICS: MABDS$,MTABLE]
