UK July average weekly earnings +4.0% vs +3.7% 3m/y expected

Author: Justin Low | Category: News

Latest data released by ONS - 10 September 2019


  • Prior +3.7%; revised to +3.8%
  • Average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +3.8% vs +3.7% 3m/y expected
  • Prior +3.9%
  • ILO unemployment rate 3.8% vs 3.9% expected
  • Prior 3.9%
  • Employment change 31k vs 55k expected
  • Prior 115k
  • August jobless claims change 28.2k
  • Prior 28.0k; revised to 19.8k
  • August claimant count rate 3.3%
  • Prior 3.2%
That's another solid wages reading as the headline is the highest since June 2008, with the monthly July reading alone being at +4.2% y/y - the highest since February 2010. The other bright spot in the report is that the unemployment rate also ticked lower.

In real terms, average weekly earnings is seen at +2.1% 3m/y, which represents the strongest reading since September 2015. That should be of added comfort to UK consumers amid ongoing Brexit uncertainty.

That said, that's pretty much all there is to it. The release here isn't going to alter BOE expectations whatsoever as long as their hands remain tied by Brexit developments.

Cable is off its lows for the day around 1.2335 currently, having traded around 1.2310-20 levels prior to the data release above. But I wouldn't expect the data to give a sustained rise to the pound in light of Brexit uncertainty still.

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