Latest data released by ONS - 17 August 2021

  • Prior -114.8k
  • Claimant count rate 5.7%
  • Prior 5.8%
  • June ILO unemployment rate 4.7% vs 4.8% expected
  • Prior 4.8%
  • June employment change 95k
  • Prior 25k
  • June average weekly earnings +8.8% vs +8.7% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior +7.3%; revised to +7.4%
  • June average weekly earnings (ex bonus) +7.4% vs +7.4% 3m/3m expected
  • Prior +6.6%

Slight delay in the release by the source. The report fits with the ongoing theme that UK labour market conditions are still on the path to recovery, with the number of payrolled employees increasing by another 0.6% to 28.9 million.

The June unemployment rate is also seen a tick lower as the relaxation of virus restrictions help to see another positive employment print overall.

With regards to wages, while the numbers seem pretty, they are impacted by base effects among other things with ONS noting that:

However, annual growth in average employee pay is being affected by temporary factors that have inflated the increase in the headline growth rate. These are compositional effects where there has been a fall in the number and proportion of lower-paid employee jobs so increasing average earnings and base effects where the latest months are now compared with low base periods when earnings were first affected by the pandemic.